Bitcoin price at risk of CME gap-fill unless $10.5K flips to support

Since dropping 17.5% to a monthly low at $9,817 last week, Bitcoin (BTC) price has bounced around in what appears to be a tightening range between $9,800-$10,600. 

The digital asset has yet to establish a clear pattern of daily higher lows and lower highs but as mentioned by Cointelegraph contributor Rakesh Upadhyay: 

“The long tail on the candlesticks of the past five days shows that the bulls have been buying at lower levels but they have not been able to push the price above the top of the range at $10,625, which suggests that demand dries up at higher levels.”  

Despite Bitcoin price finding soft support around $10,100, the price has been unable to hold above $10,500 and a number of analysts remain cautious as the CME gap at $9,900-$9,650 remains a threat. 

Earlier in the day, on-chain analyst Willy Woo shared an opposing point of view, suggesting that the CME gap will not be filled this time. 

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

Woo tweeted the above chart and said: 

“I'd say there's a fair chance this CME gap may not get filled, so far it's been front-run for liquidity. Every dip snapped up. If so it'll be the first CME gap on daily candles that remains unfilled.”

While the accuracy of the CME gap being used as a technical analysis indicator often comes under some scrutiny Bitcoin’s inability to flip the $10,500 level to support does raise concern. 

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

Looking back to May through late-June we can see that $9,900 functioned as a stiff level of resistance and the recent correction back to this zone has tested the level as support, which so far is holding. 

The volume profile visible range (VPVR) indicator also shows buying interest kicking in right at $9,962, which is aligned with the long lower wicks on the previous daily candles where buyers bought into dips below $10K. 

BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

The daily and 4-hour timeframe shows the RSI bouncing from oversold territory and pushing into the 50s but the declining purchasing volume on the 4-hour chart shows there’s still plenty of work to be done. 

An encouraging first step would be to see a 4-hour or daily candle close above $10,500 alongside a sustained increase in buy volume. 

There’s also a VPVR gap from $10,500 - $11,300 so things could heat up quickly if bulls manage to catalyze a high volume surge through $10,500. 

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