Bitcoin Price $8K Bounce Now Aligns Perfectly With Stock-to-Flow Chart

Bitcoin (BTC) escaped a fresh dip to $7,500 on Sept. 25, avoiding the worst scenario analysts had warned about before its major crash.

Cryptocurrency market daily overview. Source: Coin360

Bitcoin circles $8.3K halving prediction

Data from Coin360 showed the largest cryptocurrency paring some losses between $8,000 and $8,500 on Wednesday. 

Previously, BTC/USD had bottomed out below $8,000 on some exchanges, capping a nightmarish 12 hours in which the pair shed almost 20%. 

Previously, one trader warned markets were set for a dive to $7K-levels. 

Bitcoin seven-day price chart. Source: Coin360

Various theories soon emerged about what caused the rout, including a $1.2 billion transaction on an exchange which could have sparked market panic. 

Proponents also dispelled rumors that a previously alleged drop in Bitcoin’s hash rate preempted the price decline. As Cointelegraph reported, hash rate charts displayed a 40% drop earlier in the week, but commentators subsequently said the readings were inherently inaccurate.

Now, attention is turning to the run-up to Bitcoin’s 2020 block reward halving event. 

According to analyst PlanB’s stock-to-flow model for Bitcoin price, which has traditionally given accurate predictions, the mean Bitcoin price in the run-up to next May is  $8,285.

As such, under current conditions, BTC/USD is no longer trading higher than its planned levels in a year’s time. 

Bakkt heralds price discovery in action

Other sources also considered the latest drop in price to be a welcome correction. Among them was Bakkt, the institutional trading platform which launched this week. 

Arguing its product was aiding Bitcoin price discovery, Bakkt claimed the timing for the event was no coincidence. 

“Price discovery unfolding before our eyes,” officials wrote on Twitter. They added: 

“On our second day of operations, totally transparent trading in monthly Bakkt Futures Contracts shows Bitcoin ending the day at $8,560 on 166 lots changing hands.”

Bakkt had gained negative publicity due to the slow uptake upon launch, against much higher volumes for competitors’ futures products such as those from exchange Binance.

Bitcoin SV leads altcoin crash of up to 25%

In a predictable copycat move, altcoin markets followed Bitcoin downwards, with many major tokens hitting multi-month lows. 

Not all fared worse than Bitcoin, however. XRP managed to cap daily losses at 11.1%, while several managed around 12% compared to Bitcoin’s 13.5%.

Others fell considerably, with Bitcoin Cash (BCH), Bitcoin SV (BSV) and EOS (EOS) all shedding more than 20%. BSV was the worst performer in the top twenty, down 25%.

Ether (ETH), the largest altcoin by market cap, was down 14.3% on the day to hit $168.

Ether seven-day price chart. Source: Coin360

The overall cryptocurrency market cap also hemorrhaged value, falling to $221 billion, while the latest shifts boosted Bitcoin’s overall share to 68.9%.