Guggenheim CIO: ‘Speculative frenzy’ to die down, but $400k target still on

In an interview with Bloomberg Markets on Friday, Guggenheim Partners’ chief investment officer Scott Minerd clarified his seemingly contradictory views on Bitcoin’s potential, and revealed that select Guggenheim private funds have invested in the cryptocurrency.

Minerd, who oversees Guggenheim’s $275 billion in assets under management, called for a sky-high $400,000 price target for Bitcoin in an interview late last year — easily among the loftiest price predictions from a major institutional head — but more recently said in a Tweet last week that the market may be overheated. The about-face even prompted some playful accusations of market manipulation.

As Minerd said on Friday, however, his long term bullish price target remains intact while a bearish pullback may still be in the cards.

Bitcoin's parabolic rise is unsustainable in the near term. Vulnerable to a setback. The target technical upside of $35,000 has been exceeded. Time to take some money off the table.

— Scott Minerd (@ScottMinerd) January 11, 2021

“One thing we’re seeing is a sudden interest in retail [...] a lot of the crypto outlets are being overwhelmed, they’re starting to limit the orders because they can’t handle the demand.”

Once such instance is eToro, who recently warned of buyer limitations starting this weekend. Minerd noted that such strong demand might be a sign of a short term overextended rally, but the narrative winds are ultimately shifting in Bitcoin’s favor.

“The other side of that is demonstrating that crypto is becoming much more mainstream. The $400,00 price I talked about was based off the supply of gold in the world, and Crypto in a lot of ways is more attractive than gold.”

Minerd noted benefits such as portability and ease-of-transactions with Bitcoin relative to physical bullion.

When asked about if any Guggenheim funds have made the leap into Bitcoin, Minerd said “I don’t think we’re effected yet for any of our mutual funds,” though the company would consider allocations if client demand picks up.

However, he did reveal smaller private Guggenheim funds have made the leap.

“In some of our private funds we’ve already purchased it. [...] I recommended to somebody, if you believe what I said that it’ll go to 400,000 eventually, 2% of your portfolio will be 20% before this is all over.”

Part of Minerd’s bullishness is rooted in a long-term historical analysis. Earlier in the interview he noted that “we could be entering a golden age” and that “there have been comparisons made to the 1920s after the Spanish influenza.”

Ultimately, he expects significant retail funds to flow into the markets following the covid pandemic — a pool of money that may buoy crypto as well.