Bitcoin new 'worst case scenario' puts BTC bear market bottom near $6K

Published at: Nov. 26, 2022

Bitcoin (BTC) still risks a drop to below $7,000 this bear market, the latest worst case scenario prediction warns.

In its latest livestream broadcast on Nov. 24, trading platform Decentrader revealed targets for a BTC price bottom.

Analyst flags "oldschool, rock-hard support" for Bitc

The most recent in a series of BTC/USD forecasts, Decentrader co-founder Filbfilb mapped out a potential sub-$10,000 dip on the cards for the pair.

“In my worst case scenario, I think that would be probably where we end up, like oldschool, rock-hard support,” he said about a bid zone around $6,500.

This is where buyers would “probably start refilling their bags,” he added, noting that that level was approximately double the 2018 bear market and March 2020 COVID-19 crash lows.

While “unlikely” under current circumstances, Filbfilb nonetheless argued that more significant repercussions from the FTX implosion could remove bid support higher up the order book, opening up the door for such a capitulation event.

“Until we have further information, that seems unlikely, and as I say, I think the fact that we haven’t dumped harder than we actually really could have done is a good sign for the bulls,” he continued.

Given recent events, as Cointelegraph reported, BTC/USD has in fact managed to dip less compared to its previous all-time highs than during previous bear markets.

An associated debate revolves around whether a deeper dive is necessary to match those bottoms and put an end to the current downtrend.

Filbfilb commented that for Bitcoin to put in a bottom while avoiding the worst case scenario, crypto would need to “dodge some bullets” regarding FTX fallout, and macro markets would also need to stay strong.

BTC price navigates bear market pits

Elsewhere in the livestream, Decentrader co-founder Philip Swift, also the creator of data resource LookIntoBitcoin, explained other recent chart phenomena.

Among them was the increasing number of Bitcoin wallets now containing at least 1 BTC, the tally soon set to cross one million for the first time.

This is a direct result of exchange withdrawals in light of FTX, Swift said.

Although 18 months ahead, the next Bitcoin block subsidy halving event in 2024 will also become a major narrative focus going forward, he added.

That in turn will have "some positive effect on price in terms of media coverage and anticipation of that next halving event."

A comparative chart showed BTC/USD currently working through the lowest part of its four-year cycle, showing strong correlation with 2014 and 2018.

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