Bitcoin Price Rejects 100-Week MA, So Is the Pre-Halving Pump Over?

The volatility and volume in the Bitcoin (BTC) markets dropped down over the past week as the price of Bitcoin relatively stabilized. Stabilizing markets with decreasing volatility and volume usually means that spectacular movements will come back to the markets shortly. 

However, what should investors expect from the markets over the short-term? The weekly candle closed below the 100-week moving average, which is a strong signal for the bullish/bearish momentum of the markets.

Crypto market daily performance. Source: Coin360

Bitcoin’s weekly candle closes below 100-WMA

The weekly candle was unable to close above the 100-WMA, which is a crucial indicator for bullish/bearish momentum. The moving average is a significant indicator of higher time frames, as the 100 and 200-WMA are often used in equity markets to show the bullish and bearish momentum of the markets.

BTC USD 1-week chart. Source: TradingView

For instance, the 100 and 200-WMA have been providing support for the crypto market throughout the whole bull cycle of 2014-2017. Similarly, the 200-WMA has provided support for the equity markets since 2009.

Alongside the close below the 100-WMA, Bitcoin price couldn’t close above the horizontal resistance level of $6,900-$7,300.

From a bullish perspective, a crucial breakout has to occur above $6,900-$7,300. Once the price of Bitcoin maintains this area for support, the 100-WMA can be classified as support. Such a move would also warrant further upwards momentum towards $9,500 and the possible start of a bull market.

However, a breakout didn’t occur, which means that support levels are still on the table. 

The support levels on the weekly timeframe are structured in two big blocks. One is found at the $5,000-$5,200 level, just beneath the 200-WMA. The second one is found between $3,700-$4,100, which is confluent with the 300-WMA. These areas should be watched for support if Bitcoin starts to retrace.

Daily candles moving in a narrow range 

BTC USD 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

The 1-day chart is showing that the price of Bitcoin is moving inside a narrow and indecisive range.

It’s also showing that the price rejected massively at the $7,400 resistance zone, after which a drop towards the support of $6,600 occurred. This level is currently holding, but on the other hand, the $6,900 level is acting as resistance here as well.

A break below the $6,600-6,700 level with a candle close on the daily timeframe will make the markets target the area around the monthly level of $6,250-$6,300 or even $5,800-$5,850. 

However, a clear break and flip of the $6,900-$6,950 level would mark continuation, and then all eyes are on $7,600-$8,000 as the next primary level to go for.

Total market capitalization holding the $185 billion support

Total market capitalization cryptocurrency 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

The crypto total market capitalization is showing that the market cap is holding support at $185 billion, which is a massive support to keep. 

The chart is also marking a substantial area of resistance around $205-$220 billion, which is crucial for bulls to break to see continuation towards $240 and $280 billion. Aside from that, the 100-Week MA wasn’t broken past week either on the total market capitalization.

Similarly to the Bitcoin chart, a breakthrough below $185 billion would likely lead towards a significant drop, and eyes should be on $153 and $131 billion next.

Total altcoin market capitalization cryptocurrencies 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

The altcoin market capitalization is showing a similar picture of the total market capitalization. The $60-$62 billion level is crucial and needs to hold. Once the market capitalization breaks below this level, a further downwards move towards $50 and $44 billion are likely to be expected.

However, holding the support level at $60-$62 billion and a retest of the resistance area is next to occur. That resistance area can be found at $73-$76 billion, which is confluent with the 100-WMA as well.

Bullish scenario 

BTC USD 6-hour bullish chart. Source: TradingView

The bullish scenario for Bitcoin has two perspectives. The first, and probably most reliable, one would be a break of the $6,900-6,950 level, which automatically leads to a breakout of the small downtrend. 

Structuring a support/resistance flip of the $6,900-6,950 level would indicate buying pressure and further upwards momentum. Such a breakout would be providing additional targets to be the $7,200, $7,600 and $8,000 levels as these are the central zones. 

In the short term, the second perspective would be a double bottom structure in the $6,600 zone, after which a breakout of the downtrend occurs. If such a double bottom occurs, a breakout upwards would also indicate potential movements towards $7,600-$8,000.

Bearish scenario

BTC USD 6-hour bearish chart. Source: TradingView

The bearish outlook is straightforward and simple in structure. If the price of Bitcoin can’t break through the slight downtrend and the $6,900-$6,950 resistance level, a further downwards drop is expected to occur in the coming week.

Through that perspective, levels to be watched are the $6,600 level for a possible double bottom structure, but mainly the $6,350 area. This level is a monthly level, which should be expected to provide a substantial support short term. 

Breaking below the $6,350 level would create a significant volume trigger to the markets as the dropdown starts to accelerate. The next areas to look for will be $5,600-$5,800 and after that $4,800-$5,200. 

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.