Bitcoin Price Matches Stock-to-Flow Forecast as $100K Halving Nears

Bitcoin (BTC) now almost perfectly aligns with the historically accurate price chart, which has charted its growth from pennies to digital gold.

According to data from Digitalik, a resource that monitors Bitcoin's position relative to the Stock-to-Flow model, as of Jan. 20, BTC/USD is exactly where it should be. 

$8.6K Bitcoin sticks rigidly to forecasts

Stock-to-Flow measures the Bitcoin price using two factors: the stock — the number of Bitcoins in circulation — and the flow, which is the number of new Bitcoins entering circulation. 

Bitcoin's low emission rate relative to its existing supply — like gold — means Stock-to-Flow constitutes useful evidence in the argument that Bitcoin is "digital gold."

The cryptocurrency's run-up to $9,000 last week took it slightly over where Stock-to-Flow pricing forecasts suggested it might trade. 

Bitcoin price versus Stock-to-Flow. Source: Digitalik/ PlanB

At press time, however, BTC/USD traded at $8,680 — just $150 above the forecasts.

BTC on track for $100,000 in 2021

As Cointelegraph previously reported, Stock-to-Flow’s creator, the analyst known as PlanB, originally suggested that Bitcoin would hover at an average of in the year before its block reward halving in May 2020.

At that point, a 50% reduction in the number of new Bitcoins released to miners each block would further limit the flow versus the existing stock. Thereafter, he has said, price performance should accelerate dramatically — by 2022, a single Bitcoin should be worth around $100,000.

In 2019, BTC/USD only temporarily diverged from Stock-to-Flow as it hit $13,800, only to fall below expectations for a similarly brief period in December.