Bitcoin price dips below $30K but here’s why pro traders are still bullish

Published at: Jan. 28, 2021

In the last 24-hours Bitcoin (BTC) price dropped 10% today to test the $30,000 support. This drop below what traders have described as a ‘key’ support occurred just two days ahead of this month’s futures and options expiry. 

Despite the record-high $4 billion options expiry being just two days away, both bull and bear sides traded similar sizes today.

Unlike futures contracts, options are divided into two segments. Call (buy) options allow the buyer to acquire BTC at a fixed price on the expiry date. On the other hand, the seller of the instrument will be obliged to make the BTC sale. Generally speaking, they are used on either neutral arbitrage trades or bullish strategies.

The put (sell) options are commonly used as hedge, protection from negative price swings.

To understand how these competing forces are balanced, one should compare the calls and put options size at each expiry price (strike). Options markets are all-or-none, meaning they either have value or become worthless if trading above the call strike price, or the opposite for put option holders.

The trading volume over the past 24-hours has favored the more bullish call options by 51%. Nevertheless, this number is polluted by the ultra bullish strikes priced at $37,000 and higher. Considering there's less than 36 hours before the expiry, these contracts are trading below $50 each.

Excluding these over-optimistic strikes, today's trading added another $95 million worth of call options open interest below $35,000. On the other hand, the more bearish put options at $27,000 and higher amount to $90 million worth of open interest.

The result of today's activity has been neutral for Friday's options expiry. Nevertheless, one should check the overall open interest imbalance separate from today's movement.

By excluding the put options below $27,000 and the call options above $35,000, it is easier to estimate the potential impact of Friday's expiry. Incentives to pump or dump the price by more than 16% become less likely, as the potential gains will seldom surpass the cost.

This data leaves $582 million worth of call options up to $35,000 for the aggregate options expiry on Jan. 29. Meanwhile, the more bearish put options down to $27,000 amount to $422 million. Therefore, there's a $160 million imbalance favoring the more bullish call options.

Considering the volumes traded over the past 24 hours and the put options open interest, there's not much gain for bears in pressuring BTC below $29,000, at least from the options market standpoint.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Tags
Bitcoin
Bitcoin Price
Markets
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin Futures
Derivatives
Bitcoin Options
Cme
Related Posts
Rising Bitcoin futures funding rate signals traders expect $50,000 BTC
Today Bitcoin (BTC) price rallied to a new all-time high at $44,900 shortly after Tesla announced a $1.5 billion investment. This event triggered $555 million worth of shorts to be liquidated in two hours and it happened as Bitcoin futures open interest reached $13.7 billion, which is just 3% below its historical high. These price moves drastically increased the cost of carrying long positions, mainly for those using perpetual futures. This indicator raised a yellow flag on how leveraged those investors are and their potential price impact. As shown adove, the aggregate BTC futures open interest just reached a $15 …
Bitcoin / Feb. 8, 2021
Here’s why Bitcoin price is struggling to reclaim $38,000
After bouncing from the recent short-term low, Bitcoin (BTC) price posted a 15% gain over three days as it climbed from $32,400 to $37,200. This was an impressive move given that BTC price had been trading in a sideways range for weeks and regardless of the reasons behind the surge, one would expect large traders and arbitrage desks to follow the trend. Interestingly, this is not the case as many of the top traders opened short positions as BTC commenced its 15% move. Even if a trader lacks confidence in a potential retest of the $42,000 all-time high, opening shorts …
Bitcoin / Feb. 4, 2021
High priced $32K Bitcoin options show some pro traders expect more upside
A month ago, one would be hard pressed to find any investor who would have expected a $32,000 Bitcoin (BTC) price for January. At the time, a 140% upside was needed from the $13,300 price on Oct. 30 and this seemed quite far fetched. Therefore, the January $32,000 BTC call (buy) options traded at Deribit for a meager $67, or 0.005 BTC in late October. Fast forward to now, and the same call option peaked at $705. That’s an almost 10x gain in less than four weeks. Keep in mind that despite the rally to $19,484, an additional 67% upside …
Bitcoin / Nov. 29, 2020
Bitcoin price hits $32K but derivatives metrics still show signs of weakness
There's no doubt that the last couple of months have been bearish for Bitcoin (BTC), but throughout this entire period, derivatives indicators have been relatively neutral. This could be because cryptocurrencies have a strong track record of volatility, and even 55% corrections from all-time highs are expected. After two months of struggling to sustain the $30,000 support and finally losing it on July 20, the futures premium and options skew turned bearish. Even PlanB's stock-to-flow valuation model was not expecting prices below $30,000 for the current month. The model uses the stock-to-flow ratio, which is defined by the current number …
Bitcoin / July 21, 2021
Bitcoin has stalled, but here’s why pro traders still expect $80K by January
Selecting a timeframe for technical analysis is always a tricky topic, but usually, the longer the trend, the higher the odds it shall prevail. For example, those analyzing the 3-day Bitcoin (BTC) chart will unarguably identify an ascending channel pattern that initiated in late June. Bears will also always find ways to justify their views despite the fact that Bitcoin has hit new all-time highs following the United States consumer price surge to 6.2%, which is the biggest inflation surge in 30 years. However, data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode shows that long-term investors have stopped net accumulating and are …
Bitcoin / Nov. 16, 2021