Bitcoin bulls plan to flip $23K to support by aiming to win this week’s $1B options expiry

Published at: Feb. 1, 2023

Bitcoin's (BTC) price has been trading above $22,500 for 12 days. Of course, this situation can change even if Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell issues positive statements about the economy in today’s post-FOMC presser. 

Even if the decision matches the market consensus, the post-meeting statement should be investors' primary area of focus. Specific areas to focus on would be clues for the next meeting in March.

Troubling news for the largest stablecoin Tether (USDT), could also cause a meaningful impact after a Celsius bankruptcy examiner report showed that "Tether's exposure eventually grew to over $2 billion" in Sep. 2021. However, it is unclear if iFinex — Tether’s issuer — suffered any losses. iFinex CTO Paolo Ardoino denied exposure to Celsius and suggested that the examiner had "mixed up" prepositions in the report.

Is a strong correction in stock market ahead?

Legendary portfolio manager Michael Burry, known for being one of the most vocal critics of the subprime mortgage crisis in 2007 to 2008, posted a short note on Twitter on Feb. 1, suggesting that investors "sell."

While the message lacks a supporting thesis, one could conclude that Burry expects a meaningful correction in traditional markets. Considering the 40-day correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 index at 75%, the odds of a BTC price retrace become evident.

Consequently, this week's Feb. 3, $1 billion BTC options expiry can go either way because bears can still flip the tables as the tide currently favors the bulls.

Bitcoin bears were caught entirely off-guard

The open interest for the Feb. 3 options expiry is $1 billion, but the actual figure will be lower since bears were caught by surprise after the 9.6% rally between Jan. 20 and Jan. 21.

The 1.61 call-to-put ratio reflects the imbalance between the $640 million call (buy) open interest and the $400 million put (sell) options.

If Bitcoin price remains above $23,000 at 8:00 am UTC on Feb. 3, less than $7 million worth of these put (sell) options will be available. This difference happens because the right to sell Bitcoin at $22,000 or $23,000 is useless if BTC trades above that level on expiry.

Related: Retail giant Pick n Pay to accept Bitcoin in 1,628 stores across South Africa

$23,000 Bitcoin would give bulls a $180 million profit

Below are the three most likely scenarios based on the current price action. The number of options contracts available on Feb.3 for call (bull) and put (bear) instruments varies, depending on the expiry price. The imbalance favoring each side constitutes the theoretical profit:

Between $21,000 and $22,000: 2,700 calls vs. 10,700 puts. The net result favors the put (bear) instruments by $165 million.Between $22,000 and $23,000: 4,400 calls vs. 4,200 puts. The net result is balanced between call and put options.Between $23,000 and $24,000: 7,800 calls vs. 100 puts. The net result favors the call (bull) instruments by $180 million.Between $24,000 and $25,000: 12,400 calls vs. 0 puts. Bulls extend their gains to $300 million.

This crude estimate considers the call options used in bullish bets and the put options exclusively in neutral-to-bearish trades. Even so, this oversimplification disregards more complex investment strategies.

For example, a trader could have sold a call option, effectively gaining negative exposure to Bitcoin above a specific price, but unfortunately, there's no easy way to estimate this effect.

In essence, Bitcoin bears need to push the price below $22,000 on Feb. 3 to flip the tables and secure a $165 million profit. But, for now, bulls are well positioned to profit from the BTC weekly options expiry and use the proceeds to further defend the $23,000 support.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Tags
Bitcoin
Bitcoin Price
Markets
Market Analysis
Cryptocurrency Exchange
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin Options
Tether
S&P 500
Celsius
Related Posts
Here’s a clever options strategy for cautiously optimistic Bitcoin traders
Bitcoin (BTC) entered an upward channel in early January and despite the sideways trading near $40,000, order book analysts cited "significant buying pressure" and noted that the overall negative sentiment might be heading towards exhaustion. Independent analyst Johal Miles noted that BTC's price formed a bullish hammer candlestick on its daily chart on Jan. 24 and Feb. 24, hinting that the longer-term downtrend is close to an end. However, the rally above $41,000 on Feb. 28 was unable to create strong demand from Asia-based traders, as depicted by the lack of a China-based peer-to-peer Tether (USDT) premium versus the the …
Bitcoin / March 1, 2022
Pro traders don’t expect Bitcoin to break and hold $20,000 anytime soon
111 days have passed since Bitcoin (BTC) posted a close above $25,000 and this led some investors to feel less sure that the asset had found a confirmed bottom. At the moment, global financial markets remain uneasy due to the tension in Ukraine increasing after this week’s Nord Stream gas pipeline incident. The Bank of England's emergency intervention in government bond markets on Sept. 28 also shed some light on how extremely fragile fund managers and financial institutions are right now. The movement marked a stark shift from the previous intention to tighten economies as inflationary pressures mounted. Currently, the …
Bitcoin / Sept. 29, 2022
Bitcoin bulls aim for a post-FOMC win in Friday’s $640M BTC options expiry
The past few months have been painful for Bitcoin (BTC) bulls, but they are not alone. The United States Federal Reserve’s tightening economy policy has led investors to seek protection in cash positions and inflation-protected bonds. Surging inflation and recession signals have caused the S&P 500 stock market index to retreat 19% year-to-date. Even gold — previously considered a safe asset — is suffering the consequences, trading down 20% from its all-time high. The increasing costs of a home mortgage added fear that a housing crisis might be underway. Since the FED started raising interest rates in March, borrowing costs …
Bitcoin / Nov. 2, 2022
Bullish Bitcoin newsflow gives bulls a boost ahead of Friday's $565M options expiry
On Friday, June 11, a total of $565 million in Bitcoin (BTC) options are set to expire. This is significant because the last couple of weeks have been a massive deception for bulls. After all, the price was struggling to sustain the $33,000 support. However, an unexpected bullish turn of events led to an 18.5% hike from the $31,000 low on June 8 to $38,491 today. This strong move saved the bulls because any level below $34,000 would have wiped 98% of the current call (buy) options. Who saved the day? First, MicroStrategy, a publicly-traded company that holds over $3.2 …
Bitcoin / June 10, 2021
Bitcoin futures enter backwardation for the first time in a year
Bitcoin's (BTC) month-to-date chart is very bearish, and the sub-$18,000 level seen over the weekend was the lowest price seen since December 2020. Bulls' current hope depends on turning $20,000 to support, but derivatives metrics tell a completely different story as professional traders are still extremely skeptical. It’s important to remember that the S&P 500 index dropped 11% in June, and even multi-billion dollar companies like Netflix, PayPal and Caesars Entertainment have corrected with 71%, 61% and 57% losses, respectively. The U.S. Federal Open Market Committee raised its benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points on June 15, and Federal …
Bitcoin / June 20, 2022