Bitcoin Price Diary: How Everything Went 100% Right With My $7.3K Long

Published at: Nov. 4, 2019

The sixth installment of my trade journal features one of my best Bitcoin (BTC) swing trades ever, catching much of the 40% move that caught many traders off guard. 

This was a straightforward trade for me, filling bids in an area that I was expecting to be near the potential bottom. The entire trade is immortalized in a twitter thread. After closing this trade, I opened a new one on the retrace, which is still active.

BTC/USD

Setting up the trade

Entries: $7,390, $7,450 ($7,420 average entry)

Targets: $7,712, $8,535, $10,000

Stop loss: I set the stop loss at $7,240, below the 61.8% fib and recent swing low. This would result in a 2.4% loss on the position and a 1% portfolio loss. 

Risk / reward: Target 1 = 1.62, Target 2 = 6.19 Target 3 = 14.33

Part 1: Catching Bitcoin’s biggest pump since 2011

As discussed in my previous journal, after a significant break down from the bear flag on Oct. 23, Bitcoin price approached a buy order that I had set in June 2019. There was no rational reason for me to remove this order as doing so would be an emotional decision based on the recent drop. I filled my bids at $7,390 in the highlighted zone below. 

This also amounted to an almost perfect 61.8% retrace of the entire move from the $3,100 bottom to the $13,800 top, considered by many to be an ideal entry. 

XBT USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

Further, Bitcoin was flashing a bullish divergence on every time frame ranging from the 4-hour to the 3-day time frame. These divergences eventually confirmed on all time frames, shown below on the daily chart.

BTC USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

I doubled down on this position on Oct. 24 after price showed a clear swing failure pattern (SFP), wicking below a key swing low from months ago and closing above. 

This is viewed as a sign that liquidity has been engineered by a large party, who has likely moved priced below a certain level to sweep stop-loss orders and fill bids by enticing traders to go short. This SFP is shown below, both on the daily and 4-hour time frames.

BTC USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

BTC USD 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

How it worked out

Oct. 25th and 26th saw one of the largest daily moves in 24 hours in the history of Bitcoin, and the largest since 2011 — a 40% pump. 

All 3 of my targets were hit, which are illustrated below. The first target was just below the bottom of the previous trading range, a likely point of resistance. Considering the 40% move, this was a very early place to start taking profit, but I was comfortable locking in gains in an area where the price was likely to stall, if not reverse back down. I sold ⅓ of my position here. 

BTC USD 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

BTC price moved quickly through the first target, and in a matter of hours had reached the top of the range, filling my second round of asks at $8,500. This accounted for another ⅓ of my position closing.

At this point, I did not have an exact take profit set, as I wanted to watch price action for a good spot to close the remaining ⅓ of the position Price ultimately moved above $10,000 quickly, so I moved a stop loss to just under this psychological level. It was night time where I live, so I went to sleep and woke up “stopped out” at just under $10,000. 

This trade (alongside a massive move on Tesla) accounted for a large enough gain to fulfill my profit quota for the rest of 2019. As I always say, the less I trade, the more I make. 

Part 2: Setting up my new Bitcoin trade

Entry: $8,995

Targets: $9,600, $9,809, $10,379.15, $10,943, $12,700… and some higher!

Stop loss: $8,775

Entry Idea

As chronicled in the previous trade, Bitcoin made a massive move and then began to retrace. For me, the 40% Bitcoin pump was a sign that the downside was likely over for good, and that it was time to continue looking for long entries. 

On any impulsive move, it is common to see a 50% retrace, a knee-jerk selling reaction to a massive change in market conditions. For this reason, I was eyeing the 50% retrace for an entry. 

BTC USD 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

Price dropped to the 50% level, filling my bids for a new Bitcoin position. The chart below shows fresh areas of interest I highlighted for a new trade, including the swing high ($8,995) on the 4-hour chart, immediately after the move down from late September. This is why I chose to set my bids on this line. 

BTC USD 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

The lines drawn on the above chart account for likely short-term targets, as well as area below to use for stop losses (with a bit of room beneath for a wick). I will continue to update this trade as it continues.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the (@scottmelker) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Tags
Related Posts
Bitcoin bull run sparks $180K BTC price prediction ahead of institutional ‘fireworks’
Bitcoin (BTC) made traders play a guessing game on Thursday as $50,000 looked increasingly shaky as new support. Crypto seeing “spectacular” September Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView tracked BTC/USD as it crisscrossed the $50,000 barrier after returning to it for the first time in almost two weeks. The largest cryptocurrency saw 4.5% gains on the day, these nonetheless beaten by three of the top 10 altcoins, which all managed over 7%. Against a largely positive background, traders were understandably bullish on Bitcoin’s prospects. “Break above 50k = 58-60k to follow. Sitting above 200D MA which is now acting …
Bitcoin / Sept. 2, 2021
Altcoins notch triple-digit gains as Bitcoin price pushes toward $60K
If this past weekend is any indication of the current bull market cycle, then an altcoin season may be well underway. Similar to previous cycles, after Bitcoin (BTC) makes a significant run-up in price and then enters a consolidation period, funds begin to migrate into large and small market cap altcoins. Data from Cointelegraph Markets and TradingView shows that while Bitcoin traded in a range between $57,000 and $60,200 over the past week, multiple altcoins saw double-digit gains as exchange listings and protocol developments brought a new wave of enthusiasm and trading volume for select projects. Tron ecosystem leads the …
Blockchain / April 6, 2021
BakerySwap, Syscoin and Utrust rally as altcoin season kicks into high gear
Bitcoin’s (BTC) institutional adoption shows no signs of slowing down. This week Latin America’s largest e-commerce company, Mercado Libre, disclosed that it had purchased $7.8 million worth of Bitcoin as part of its treasury strategy. Mercado Libre was not only in this decision, as Metromile Inc., a Nasdaq-listed digital insurer also said it plans to buy $10 million worth of Bitcoin in the second quarter of this year. Additionally, Metromile will soon start accepting premiums and paying out insurance claims in Bitcoin. Data from Glassnode suggests that investors who purchased Bitcoin in late 2020 are HODLing their positions. This shows …
Bitcoin Price / May 6, 2021
Crypto Markets in The Green, XRP Sees Major Boost Briefly Overtaking ETH by Market Cap
Tuesday, Nov. 6: top cryptocurrencies have seen strong gains on the day, with Ripple (XRP) temporarily overtaking Ethereum (ETH) as the top altcoin by market capitalization. Market visualization from Coin360 Bitcoin (BTC) is up 0.3 percent over the last 24 hours, and is trading at around $6,447 as of press time. Having briefly dipped below $6,400 during the day, BTC has rebounded and is pushing a slightly higher price point. BTC is still down 1.67 percent over the past 30 days. Bitcoin 7-day price chart. Source: CoinMarketCap ETH has seen some growth over the 24-hour period, up 3.64 percent from …
Bitcoin / Nov. 6, 2018
After a Brief Decline, Crypto Market Cap Is Stable Around $130 Billion, Stocks Are Down
Thursday, Feb. 28 — crypto markets continued trading sideways, while the total market capitalization has remained stable around $130 billion after a major sell off on Feb. 24, according to CoinMarketCap. Market visualization from Coin360 Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $3,865, up around 0.3 percent over the past 24 hours at press time. With that, the biggest crypto has seen some volatility on the day, with its intraday low of $3,787, and the high of $3,906. After the Sunday sell off, Bitcoin is down 2.15 percent over the past seven days. Bitcoin 24-hour price chart. Source: CoinMarketCap The top altcoin …
Bitcoin Price / Feb. 28, 2019