Move over S2F — Model creator says ‘90% chance’ BTC never dips below $11K again

The author behind a valuation model for Bitcoin that's based on Metcalfe’s Law says the crypto asset will likely be priced around $12,000 by the end of November and reach $1 million within a decade.

In an Oct. 11 Twitter thread, Timothy Peterson, Global Macro Manager at Cane Island Alternative Advisors, said there is “90% chance that Bitcoin will never again close below $11K.” Disclaimer: While he’s deadly serious, the prediction recalls the oft stated meme about the “last chance” to buy Bitcoin under $10K, which has frequently been proven wrong.

This might be the last chance to buy bitcoin under $10,000

— Mati Greenspan (tweets ≠ financial advice) (@MatiGreenspan) February 23, 2020

However, the analyst claims his model, which he first devised in 2017, has been more or less accurate so far. Peterson claimed to have successfully predicted the end of year prices of the cryptocurrency in the past two years. For 2018, he predicted a price of $3,500 — the actual price on Dec. 31 was $3,782, a difference of only 7%. Peterson also predicted a mid-range estimate of $7,000 for the end of 2019. The recorded price of Bitcoin was $7,243 on that day.

Using these methods, the analyst estimates Bitcoin (BTC) will be valued at $100,000 by January 2024 and $1 million by March 2028. He also issued a very specific prediction about the exact price on November 30 to naysayers who doubt the accuracy of his model:

6/10 On November 30th, 2020, #Bitcoin's price will be at or above $12,000 (90% probability). Write it down, screenshot it, whatever. I don't care if you believe me or not. pic.twitter.com/EpmDdAPu2T

— Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredcrypto) October 11, 2020

Bitcoin's supply is easily ascertainable — more than 18.5 million coins as of this writing — and Peterson believes demand can be measured by the number of BTC wallets. Using this information Peterson created a price model based on Metcalfe’s Law, which says the value of a communications network is proportional to the square of the number of its users. In Bitcoin’s case, the price would be proportional to the square of the number of connected users holding coins on the blockchain. In essence, BTC becomes more valuable as adoption grows. "Metcalfe's law is a mathematical and scientific fact, like gravity and E=mc2," said Peterson.

Peterson’s “lowest price forward” model is a competitor to the most popular Bitcoin valuation model, stock-to-flow (S2F), created by Crypto Twitter user PlanB, that predicts a Bitcoin price of $288,000 by the next halving.

However, ByteTree co-founder and chief investment officer Charlie Morris recently authored a report attempting to debunk the S2F model. Morris argues that since Bitcoin’s supply is fixed, the demand is more likely to determine the price, and pointed out the economic role of Bitcoin miners is diminishing over time.

“There are many reasons why the price of Bitcoin can rise or fall,” said Morris. “But S2F is not one of them.”

Peterson’s 7,718 Twitter followers pales in comparison to PlanB’s 139,200, so his message may not quite have the reach of S2F just yet. Despite their differences, both price prediction models see a bullish future for Bitcoin.

“You'll see some amazing things happen with Bitcoin in 2021,” said Peterson.