Price Analysis Mar 4: BTC, ETH, XRP, BCH, BSV, LTC, EOS, BNB, XTZ, LINK
Grayscale Investments managing director Michael Sonnenschein said that “Bitcoin itself has solidified its role as a store of value or as a digital gold.” In his conversations with institutional investors, Sonnenschein explained that he has seen a big change in the way they view Bitcoin. According to him, now, several institutional investors are looking to add cryptocurrency to their portfolio, which was not the case just 12 to 18 months ago.
In a report, KPMG has said that institutional players are concerned about the lack of proper custody for cryptocurrencies. Co-lead of KPMG’s crypto asset services Sal Ternullo said :
“Institutional investors especially will not risk owning crypto assets if their value cannot be safeguarded in the same way their cash, stocks and bonds are.” In order to fill this gap, several traditional and crypto players have started offering custody services, which is a lucrative business to be in.
Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360
Popular analyst Willy Woo believes that Bitcoin has started its bull run, which can reach at least $100,000. However, gold bug Peter Schiff has a completely different view on Bitcoin. Schiff said: “If Bitcoin won't go up, why own it? The answer to that question is ‘sell.’ Look out below!”
It should be noted that Bitcoin’s failure to rise in value due to a certain short-term event should not be the criteria to sell. During the last financial crisis, both gold and the equity markets fell sharply between mid-March to mid-October 2008. However, after the panic settled, the gold markets embarked on a strong bull run. Let’s study the charts to find out which cryptocurrencies are likely to move up or down.
BTC/USD
Bitcoin (BTC) price has been stuck between $8,400 and $9,000 for the past few days. This shows uncertainty among traders as they are not taking a decisive directional bet. Even though the bulls are buying close to $8,400, the buying dries up at higher levels. Similarly, bears are mounting a stiff resistance at $9,000 but are not following it up with aggressive selling below $8,400.
BTC USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview
As a result, the BTC/USD pair has been hovering close to the 200-day SMA for the past few days. The downsloping 20-day EMA and the RSI in the negative zone suggest that the bears have the upper hand.
If the bears can sink the price below $8,400, a drop to the next support at $7,856.76 is possible. Such a move will be a huge negative as it will carry the price further below the 200-day SMA.
However, if the bulls can push the price above the 20-day EMA at $9,153, it will indicate strength. If the price sustains above the 20-day EMA, the pair can move up to $10,000 and above it to $10,500.
The short-term traders can buy on a breakout and close above the 20-day EMA with a stop loss at $8,400. This is a risky trade, hence, we suggest traders use only about 40% of the usual position size.
ETH/USD
Ether (ETH) once again turned down from the overhead resistance at $235.70 on Mar. 3. The 20-day EMA at $234.7 is just below the horizontal resistance. Therefore, we expect the bears to defend this resistance aggressively.
ETH USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview
On the downside, the bulls have been providing support close to $209.95. However, we expect a breakout or breakdown of this tight range soon.
If the ETH/USD pair breaks below $209.95, it can dip to $197.75, which is likely to act as a strong support. On the other hand, if the price breaks out of $235.70, a move to $288.599 is possible. Therefore, traders can buy on a close (UTC time) above $235.70 with a stop below $208.
XRP/USD
The bulls have not been able to achieve a strong bounce off the support at $0.22250. This shows that buyers are in no rush to initiate long positions even at these levels. XRP has formed a small descending triangle pattern, which will complete on a break below $0.22250.
XRP USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview
If the bears can sustain the price below $0.22250, a drop to $0.20 and below it to $0.17468 is possible. The 20-day EMA is sloping down and the RSI is in the negative territory, which suggests that bears are in command.
Our bearish view will be invalidated if the XRP/USD pair rises above the moving averages and the overhead resistance at $0.26362.
BCH/USD
The bulls have failed to push Bitcoin Cash (BCH) above the descending channel. This shows a lack of buyers at higher levels. The bears will now attempt to sink the altcoin below $306.78.
BCH USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview
If successful, a drop to $270.15 is possible. The 20-day EMA is sloping down and the RSI is in the negative zone, which suggests that bears have the upper hand.
Conversely, if the BCH/USD pair again bounces off the support at $306.78, the bulls will make another attempt to carry the price above $360. If successful, a rally to $400 and above it to $500 is possible. There is a minor resistance at $430 but we expect it to be crossed. We will turn positive on a close (UTC time) above $360.
BSV/USD
Bitcoin SV (BSV) has once again turned down from the 20-day EMA, which shows that bears are aggressively defending it. If the price sustains below $236, a retest of the recent lows at $204.310 is likely.
BSV USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview
A break below $200 will be a huge negative and it can drag the BSV/USD pair to $173.660 and below it to the 200-day SMA at $157.15.
Conversely, if the pair bounces off the current levels or from $204.310 the bulls will make another attempt to propel the price above the 20-day EMA. If successful, a move to $301.43 and above it to $337.80 is possible. We will turn positive on a close (UTC time) above the 20-day EMA.
LTC/USD
Though Litecoin (LTC) has been trading above the 200-day SMA for the past two days, the bulls have not been able to push it to $66.1486. This suggests that buying dries up at higher levels.
LTC USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview
If the LTC/USD pair again dips back below the 200-day SMA, it can retest the recent lows at $56.2430. If this level holds, the pair might remain range-bound for a few days but if the level cracks, a drop to $50 is likely.
Alternatively, if the bulls can push the price above the overhead resistance at $66.1486, the pair can move up to $80.2731. We will wait for a new buy setup to form before recommending a trade in it.
EOS/USD
EOS has broken out of the downtrend line but it has not picked up momentum. This shows a lack of buyers at higher levels. The price might trade between the 200-day SMA at $3.36 and $4 for a few days.
EOS USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview
The 20-day EMA is sloping down and the RSI is in negative territory, which suggests that bears have the upper hand. A break below the 200-day SMA will be a huge negative, which can drag the price to $3 and below it to $2.4001.
Conversely, if the EOS/USD pair can rise above the overhead resistance at $4, a move to $4.8719 is possible. We do not find a reliable buy setup at the current levels, hence, we suggest traders remain on the sidelines.
BNB/USD
Binance Coin (BNB) is facing selling at the resistance line of the descending channel. However, the positive thing is that the bulls have not given up much ground, which increases the possibility of a breakout from the channel.
BNB USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview
If the bulls can drive the price above the 20-day EMA at $20.64, a move to the $21.80-$23.5213 resistance zone is likely. Above this zone, the uptrend can reach $27.1905.
Conversely, if the BNB/USD pair fails to scale above the 20-day EMA, the bears will attempt to sink it back below the recent low of $17.7051. If successful, it will be a huge negative and can drag the price to $16.4288.
XTZ/USD
Tezos (XTZ) has been consolidating between $3.011 and $2.5263 for the past few days. A breakout of this range will be a bullish sign as it will increase the possibility of a move to $3.50 and above it $3.9499
XTZ USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview
Therefore, we retain the buy recommendation given in the previous analysis. If the momentum can push the XTZ/USD pair to new highs, the rally can extend to $5.3735.
Conversely, if the bulls fail to sustain the pair above $3.011, the bears will try to sink it below $2.5263. If successful, a drop to $1.83178720 is likely.
LINK/USD
Chainlink (LINK) has resumed its uptrend and has made a new high. The 20-day EMA is sloping up and the RSI is in the positive territory, which suggests that bulls are firmly in command.
LINK USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview
If the bulls can sustain the price close to the highs, it will signal a strong demand even at higher levels. The first target on the upside is $5.6934 and above it $7.3101.
However, if the LINK/USD pair fails to sustain the highs, the bears will attempt to sink it back to the 20-day EMA and below it to the trendline.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.
Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.