Ethereum is ahead of Bitcoin this rally — But ETH price still risks 20% crash against BTC

Ethereum's native token Ether (ETH) recorded better gains than Bitcoin (BTC) over the past 24 hours despite the latter finally rising above the key $20,000 level.

Ethereum beats Bitcoin in risk-on rally

On the daily chart, Ether jumped approximately 14% to reach its weekly high of $1,554 (data from Binance) on Oct. 26. Bitcoin underwent a similar rally but its week-to-date profits are just 6% by comparison. 

The ETH/BTC pair gained around 8%, climbing as high as 0.075 BTC on Oct. 26.

The boom across the top crypto assets was synchronous with the U.S. stock market's winning streak since Oct. 24. It also came on the backdrop of a weaker U.S. dollar index, which has been typically trading inversely to the crypto market since March 2020.

Bear fractal alarm

ETH/BTC's latest price rally has taken it to a range that preceded a 35% correction in the April-May 2022 session (marked as "R1" in the chart below) and was instrumental in limiting its upside prospects in August-September 2022 (marked as "R3" in the chart below).

The range coincides with the area defined by ETH/BTC's 0.236-0.382 Fib lines, or 0.072 BTC-0.077 BTC. Therefore, the pair may stabilize inside the range, followed by a correction toward the 0.068-0.064 BTC area, its near-term support levels.

Related: Ethereum's Merge won't stop its price from sinking

Meanwhile, a decisive breakdown below the 0.068-0.064 BTC area could expose Ether to fall toward its multi-month ascending trendline, which served as a solid rebound point after the April-May 2022 downtrend.

$ETHBTC | UpdateThe outlook after closing the pair at the top.You can have a nice projection by analyzing RTed tweets (for education).With mLTF bearish indications from the red box, the price may visit the lows of the green box.The red lines are another resistance zone. https://t.co/6zFhLWT1A0 pic.twitter.com/rKnxWsCS3E

That puts ETH/BTC's primary downside target to around 0.059 BTC in Q4/2022, down 20% from current price levels.

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