Price analysis 3/2: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, LUNA, SOL, ADA, AVAX, DOT, DOGE
The speculation regarding the U.S. Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle and recent geopolitical developments may have resulted in panic selling by short-term traders. Analysis from Glassnode suggested that traders who had purchased Bitcoin (BTC) near the November 2021 high liquidated their positions in the past two and half months. This supply was absorbed by high conviction investors, which resulted in a redistribution from weak hands to strong hands.
The crypto market, due to its resilience, continues to attract erstwhile naysayers to its fold. The latest popular figure to have a change of heart is Ken Griffin, founder of American multinational hedge fund and financial services company Citadel. In an interview with Bloomberg, Griffin said that Citadel will “engage in making markets in cryptocurrencies” over the next few months.
Voyager Digital co-founder and CEO Stephen Ehrlich told Cointelegraph that the firm’s recent quarter was its “best ever, so I certainly feel it's a great time to be in crypto." Along with businesses, Ehrlich believes that crypto investors are likely to be rewarded in the long term.
Will the demand remain intact at higher levels and could the recovery extend further in the next few days? Let’s analyze the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
BTC/USDT
Bitcoin’s recovery has reached the overhead resistance zone between $45,821 and the resistance line of the ascending channel. The bears are expected to defend the zone with vigor.
The 20-day exponential moving average ($40,797) has started to turn up and the relative strength index (RSI) is in the positive territory, indicating advantage to buyers. If the bulls arrest the next dip at the 20-day EMA, it will increase the possibility of a break above the channel. If that happens, the BTC/USDT pair could rally to $52,088.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down and breaks below the moving averages, it will suggest that the pair could remain stuck inside the channel for a few more days. The pair may then drop toward the support line of the channel.
ETH/USDT
Ether (ETH) broke and closed above the 50-day simple moving average ($2,860) on Feb. 28, indicating that bulls are attempting a comeback. The moving averages are close to completing a bullish crossover and the RSI is in the positive territory, indicating that the path of least resistance is to the upside.
If the price rebounds off the 20-day EMA ($2,824), it will suggest that the bulls are buying on every minor dip. The ETH/USDT pair could then rise to the resistance line of the symmetrical triangle pattern. The bears are likely to defend this level aggressively but if bulls surpass this barrier, the pair could start a new uptrend.
Alternatively, if the price slips below the 20-day EMA, the pair could drop to the support line of the triangle. A break and close below the triangle could suggest the resumption of the downtrend. The price action inside the triangle is likely to remain volatile.
BNB/USDT
Binance Coin (BNB) broke above the 50-day SMA ($406) on March 1 but the long wick on the candlestick indicates selling at higher levels. The bulls again pushed the price above the 50-day SMA today but are struggling to sustain the higher levels.
This indicates that the bears are trying to defend the 50-day SMA. If the price turns down from the current level but does not break below the 20-day EMA ($391), it will suggest that bulls are buying on dips.
That will improve the prospects of a break and close above the 50-day SMA. If that happens, the BNB/USDT pair could rally to the overhead resistance at $445. This positive view will invalidate in the short term if the price breaks and sustains below the 20-day EMA.
XRP/USDT
Ripple (XRP) rose to the downtrend line on Feb. 28 where the bears are mounting a strong defense. The price has turned down from the downtrend line and could now drop to the 50-day SMA ($0.72).
The flattish moving averages and the RSI near the midpoint suggest a balance between supply and demand. This balance will shift in favor of the buyers if the XRP/USDT pair rises and sustains above the downtrend line. The pair could then rally to $0.85 and later to $0.91.
Conversely, if the price slips below the 50-day SMA, it will suggest that higher levels continue to witness strong selling. The pair could then drop to $0.68 and if this level also cracks, the next stop may be the Feb. 24 intraday low at $0.62.
LUNA/USDT
The bulls have been trying to sustain Terra’s LUNA token above the overhead resistance at $94 for the past two days but the bears have not allowed that to happen.
The moving averages have completed a bullish crossover, indicating advantage to buyers. However, the RSI in the overbought territory suggests that the rally may be extended in the short term. The failure to push and sustain the price above $94 could attract profit-booking from short-term traders.
That could pull the price toward $80. If the price rebounds off this level, it will suggest that sentiment remains positive and traders are buying on dips. The bulls will then again attempt to clear the overhead hurdle at $94. If they succeed, the LUNA/USDT pair could retest the all-time high at $103.
Alternatively, a break and close below $80 could suggest a deeper correction to the 20-day EMA ($68).
SOL/USDT
Solana (SOL) broke above the 20-day EMA ($95) on Feb. 28 and successfully held the retest on March 1. The bulls are striving to push the price above the 50-day SMA ($106). If they succeed, the rally could extend to $122.
The 20-day EMA has flattened out and the RSI has risen into the positive zone, indicating that bulls are on a comeback. If bulls push and sustain the price above $122, the SOL/USDT pair will complete a double bottom pattern. The pair could then rally to $163.
This bullish view will invalidate in the short term if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-day EMA. Such a move will suggest that demand dries up at higher levels. That could keep the pair range-bound between $81 and $122 for a few days.
ADA/USDT
Cardano (ADA) has reached the breakdown level at $1. This is an important level for the bears to defend because a break and close above it will suggest that the markets have rejected the lower levels.
The flattish moving averages and the RSI just below the midpoint suggest that the bears may be losing their grip. If bulls push and sustain the price above $1, the ADA/USDT pair could rally to the resistance line of the channel.
A break and close above the channel will suggest a possible change in trend. The pair could then rise to the overhead resistance at $1.60. This bullish view will invalidate if the price turns down sharply from the current level. In that case, the pair may retest the support at $0.82.
Related: Solana price eyes $150 as SOL’s 25% jump this week puts ‘double-bottom’ in play
AVAX/USDT
Avalanche (AVAX) broke above the moving averages on Feb. 28 and reached the downtrend line of the descending channel on March 1. The bears are attempting to defend this level as they have done on three previous occasions.
If the price dips from the current level but does not break below the moving averages, it will suggest that the sentiment may have changed from sell on rallies to buy on dips.
The bulls will then make one more attempt to push and sustain the price above the channel. If they succeed, it will signal a possible change in trend. The AVAX/USDT pair could then rally to $100.
On the contrary, if the price breaks and slips below the moving averages, it will suggest that bears continue to sell aggressively. The pair could then drop to $64.
DOT/USDT
Polkadot (DOT) broke and closed above the 20-day EMA ($18) on Feb. 28 but the bulls have not been able to clear the overhead hurdle at the 50-day SMA ($20). This indicates that bears continue to sell at higher levels.
The 20-day EMA has flattened out and the RSI is just above the midpoint, indicating a possible range-bound action in the near term. If buyers push the price above the 50-day SMA, the DOT/USDT pair could rally to $23.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the current level and breaks below the 20-day EMA, the pair could retest the strong support zone at $16 to $14. The bears will have to pull the price below this zone to resume the downtrend.
DOGE/USDT
Dogecoin (DOGE) sharply rebounded off the $0.12 support on Feb. 28, indicating that the bulls are aggressively defending the level.
The relief rally is facing resistance at the 20-day EMA ($0.13), suggesting that the bears have not yet given up and they continue to sell on rallies.
If the price turns down from the moving averages, the DOGE/USDT pair could drop to $0.12. This is an important level for the bulls to defend because a break below it could pull the pair to the psychological support at $0.10.
Conversely, if the price breaks above the moving averages, the pair could rally to the overhead resistance at $0.17. The bullish momentum could pick up above this level.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.
Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.