Price Analysis 09/12: BTC, ETH, XRP, BCH, LTC, EOS, BNB, BSV, XLM, XTZ
China could start its pilot for the central bank digital currency (CBDC) before the end of this year, according to local news outlet Caijing. The article states that the anticipated pilot project “will go out of the central bank system and enter real service scenarios such as transportation, education, and medical treatment,” which will reach the end users.
The project will be overseen by the Chinese central bank and will include four major banks and large corporations such as China Telecom. This is a significant step as it will give China a major head start over other developed economies.
Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360
Today, Bakkt launched cash settled Bitcoin futures on ICE Futures Singapore and the first CFTC regulated options on futures contract for Bitcoin. With these product launches, Bakkt aims to cater to growing demand in Asia and institutional investors in the US.
Other major crypto exchanges are also expanding their offerings to cater to the increasing demand. OKEx also announced the launch of crypto options that will begin trading on Dec. 27. With these products, the stage has been set for institutional players to invest in the crypto space.
Currently, most major cryptocurrencies are range-bound and once this phase passes a sharp directional seems likely. Let’s look at the critical levels on the charts that will signal the start of a new uptrend or downtrend.
BTC/USD
Bitcoin (BTC) is facing stiff resistance close to $7,856.76. This shows that the bears are unlikely to throw in the towel without a fight. They will try to sink the price to the immediate support at $7,000.
If this support cracks, a retest of the recent low of $6,512.01 will be on the cards. A break down of this level will be a huge negative that can drag the price to $5,533.90. However, we give this a low probability of occurring.
BTC USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview
Though the bulls have failed to scale and sustain above the 20-day EMA for the past four days, the positive sign is that they have not given up much ground. We expect another attempt by the buyers to push the price above the 20-day EMA and the overhead resistance of $7,856.76.
If successful, a rally to the downtrend line is likely. This is a major resistance but if crossed, it will signal the start of a new uptrend. Therefore, we retain the buy suggested in an earlier analysis.
ETH/USD
The bulls are facing stiff resistance at the overhead resistance of $151.829. If Ether (ETH) turns down from this level, it can dip to $140 and below it to $131.484. With both moving averages sloping down and RSI in the negative territory, advantage is with the bears. A break below $131.484 will be a huge negative as the downtrend will resume.
ETH USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview
On the upside, if the bulls can push the price above $151.829, the next level to watch is $157.50. We anticipate the ETH/USD pair to pick up momentum after it breaks out and sustains above $157.50.
The short-term traders can initiate long positions on a close (UTC time) above $157.50. The first target is a rally to $173.841 and above it $197.750.
XRP/USD
The bears are aggressively defending the resistance at $0.2326, which shows a lack of buyers at higher levels. However, if XRP takes support at the small uptrend line, we anticipate the bulls to again attempt a breakout of $0.2326.
XRP USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview
We spot the first signs of an ascending triangle pattern in the making, which will complete on a breakout and close (UTC time) above $0.2326. The target objective of this bullish set up is $0.26479, which is close to the 50-day SMA. Though there is a resistance at $0.24508, we expect it to be crossed.
Contrary to our assumption, if the price break below the uptrend line, the next support is $0.20946 and if that also fails to provide support, a drop to $0.20041 is possible. The XRP/USD pair will resume the downtrend if it slips below $0.20041.
BCH/USD
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) remains stuck inside the $203.36 to $227.01 range. This shows a balance between both buyers and sellers. It is difficult to predict the direction of the breakout from the range, hence, we are not suggesting a trade at the current levels.
BCH USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview
A breakout of $227.01 will be a positive sign as it will indicate that the bulls have overpowered the bears. Above $227.01, a rally to $261.50 and above it to $306.78 is possible. Therefore, we retain the buy recommendation given in the previous analysis.
However, if the BCH/USD pair breaks down of $203.36, it will signal advantage for the bears. Below this level, a retest of $192.52 is likely. If this support also cracks, the downtrend will resume.
LTC/USD
The intraday range in Litecoin (LTC) has shrunk since December 5, which shows that both the bulls and the bears are paying it safe and are not taking any large bets. This period of low volatility is unlikely to continue for long. We anticipate the volatility to pick up within the next few days.
LTC USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview
If the volatility expands to the downside and plummets the LTC/USD pair below $42.0599, the downtrend will resume. The next support on the downside is $36.
However, if the pair rebounds off the support or turns around from the current levels and breaks above the overhead resistance at $50, it will signal a likely bottom at $42.0599. We will wait for the price to sustain above $50 before proposing a trade in it.
EOS/USD
The failure of the bulls to propel EOS above the 20-day EMA has attracted selling by the bears. They will attempt to sink the price below the immediate support at $2.5804. If successful, a retest of the critical support at $2.4001 is likely.
EOS USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview
Conversely, if the bulls buy the dip and propel the EOS/USD pair above the overhead resistance at $2.8695, a rally to the downtrend line at $3.43 and above it to $3.69 is likely. The short-term traders can piggyback on this possible up move after the price sustains above $2.8695 for four hours.
BNB/USD
Binance Coin (BNB) had formed a doji candlestick pattern for the past three days. This shows indecision among the bulls and bears about the next directional move. A breakout of the overhead resistance at $16.50 will signal that the bulls are back in the game.
BNB USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview
Above $16.50, we anticipate a rally to $21.8. Though the 50-day SMA might offer some resistance, we expect it to be crossed. We will wait for the price to sustain above $16.50 before recommending a trade in it.
Contrary to our assumption, if the price plummets below the support at $14.2555, the downtrend will resume. This will be a huge negative as it can drag the price to the next support at $11.30.
BSV/USD
Bitcoin SV (BSV) has been trading close to the support at $92.693 for the past few days. This shows a lack of urgency among the bulls to buy at these levels as they are not confident that a bottom is in place yet.
BSV USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview
The downsloping 20-day EMA and the RSI in the negative zone indicate that bears have the upper hand. If the price slips below the support at $92.693, a drop to the critical support at $78.506 is possible. We expect a strong defense of this level by the bulls.
Contrary to our assumption, if the BSV/USD pair bounces off the current levels and breaks out of the downtrend line, it can move up to $113.96. We will turn positive after the price scales and sustains above the 50-day SMA at $117.3.
XLM/USD
Stellar (XLM) has been trading close to the overhead resistance at $0.056 for the past six days. This is a positive sign as it indicates that the sellers have not been able to sink the price back to the support at $0.051014.
XLM USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview
If the bulls succeed in propelling the price above $0.056, a move to $0.06 will be on the cards. We expect a break out of $0.06 to attract buyers. Therefore, we suggest traders buy on a close (UTC time) above $0.06 and keep the stop loss below $0.051. On the upside, the targets to keep in mind are $0.071 and above it $0.088708.
Our bullish view will be invalidated if the price fails to break to the upside and the bears sink the XLM/USD pair below the critical support at $0.051014. Below this level, a drop to $0.041748 is likely.
XTZ/USD
Tezos (XTZ) has quickly climbed the ladder in the past few days and has become the tenth largest cryptocurrency in terms of market capitalization. While most major cryptocurrencies are either stuck in a range or are moving up gradually, Tezos has been making decisive moves to the upside.
XTZ USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview
Both moving averages are sloping up and the price has been trading above the moving averages since early November. This shows that the bulls are in command. There is a minor resistance at $1.60 above which a move to $1.85 is possible. We anticipate a stiff resistance at $1.85 but if the bulls scale above this level, the XTZ/USD pair will become very bullish.
However, if the bulls fail to push the price above $1.85, the price might remain range-bound for a few more days. Though bullish, we do not find a trade with a good risk-reward ratio, hence, we are not proposing a trade at these levels.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.
Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.